A head-first deep dive into Rickey Henderson's stolen base records

Most important steals, tendencies and other mind-boggling numbers from an Oakland native's Hall of Fame career

It started with a throw pillow in front of the TV. From the living room, through the dining room to the kitchen was about 25 feet. Plenty of space for a generous lead. When Rickey Henderson would reach base — as he did 40.1% of the time — I would toe the pillow just as the all-time steals leader would straddle the bag. Sorry, Mom.

We’d bend our knees and stretch together. Our fingers would twitch. We’d extend our right leg toward second — the kitchen phone, in my case. Then a second step. Feeling cocky — “Nicky can’t get caught!” — I take a third step. Anticipating the wind-up, I bolt to the kitchen. What a jump! I’m in standing. As I jog back into the living room, Rickey is dusting off — at first. It was a pick-off. I would have been toast.

Henderson is the MLB record holder with 1,406 steals over a 25-year career that began four years before my birth and ended two years after my graduation from Oakland Tech, Henderson’s alma mater. Using www.baseball-reference.com, I took a head-first dive into the Man of Steal’s stats, exploring their absurdity in contrast to today’s homer fest. No other player in MLB history has 1,000 steals, and with baseball trending away from speed it’s likely Henderson — rarely caught on the bases — will go unrivaled in the record books.

To illustrate Henderson’s dominance, his first 20 MLB seasons (1979-1998) outpace the combined totals of the past 20 steals leaders. When you tack on the final five seasons of Henderson’s career, when the 40-to-44-year-old bounced between five teams, his pace falls off the past 25 stolen base leaders.

With 130 steals in 1982, Henderson broke the World Series-era record previously held by Lou Brock (118 in 1974). Hugh Nicol has the most single-season steals in major-league history, swiping 138 in 1887 with the Cincinnati Red Stockings of the American Association. Henderson has three of eight 100-steal seasons since 1900.

Henderson’s stats dwarf other modern-day leaders, with No. 2 Brock having two-thirds the steals of Henderson. Henderson averaged 89.6 steals from 1980-86, leading the American League each season and all of MLB three times. He won his final stolen bases title in 1998 at age 39, stealing 66 bags in his fourth stint with Oakland.

With second base considered “scoring position,” most players don’t risk stealing third. Henderson was given the green light to take any base early in his career by Oakland A’s manager Billy Martin. For his career, 22.9% of Henderson’s steals were of third. By comparison, 8.4% of Brock’s were of third and the MLB average in 2021 was 12.7%. In fact, the most important swipe of Henderson’s career (based on baseball reference’s Championship Win Probability Added index) was of third. We’ll get to that.

Not only was Henderson a prolific base stealer, but he was also efficient on the base paths. His 81% stolen base percentage compares well to the other all-time leaders and is 13 percentage points higher than the MLB average during his career. The Oakland native scored 39% of the time he reached base and 55% of the time took an extra base (two bases on a single and three on a double, when possible).

Before the homer craze brought on by teammates Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire, Henderson made baserunning a must-see event. His bravado was captivating, with collar-popping style first demonstrated at North Oakland’s Bushrod Park. A “Rickey Rally” is to draw was walk, steal second and third and score without a hit.

Perhaps the best example of Rickey Rallies came July 29, 1989, when Henderson stole a career-high five bases against the Mariners. In the first inning, Henderson led off with a walk, stole second and third and scored on a Randy Johnson fielding error. In the third, Henderson led off with another walk, stole second and scored on a Carney Lansford double. In the fifth, Henderson led off with a walk, stole second and scored on a throwing error. In the sixth, Henderson walked, was part of a double steal with Stan Javier and scored on a Lansford double. Henderson’s stat line: Four walks (three leadoff) and four runs in four plate appearances, five steals. Four players have six steals in a game (Carl Crawford, Eric Young, Otis Nixon and Eddie Collins).

Henderson was at his absolute peak in the early 1980s. Over a 162-game span from August 29, 1981, to August 31, 1982, Henderson stole 141 bases, or 0.87 per game. The best 162-game span by a player other than Henderson is Vince Coleman, who stole 123 bases between 1986-87. Henderson’s best 30-game span is 36 steals (caught once) in July of 1983. Next best is Tim Raines’ 34 in 1981. Henderson’s record for a 10-game span is 18, in August 1983. Next best is Billy Hamilton’s 16 in 2016.

Henderson has three of the seven-longest steals streaks since 1901, though former A’s shortstop Bert Campaneris holds the record with 12. Henderson stole 19 bases (caught three times) over a career-high 11-game streak in 1983.

Baseball reference only has data on pitch counts since 1988, but a 15-year sample size of Henderson’s career shows a player who wasted no time stealing bases. Of the 705 steals logged, 25.0% came on the first pitch and 51.9% on the first two pitches. Only 23 of his logged steals came with three balls on the batter.

As the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, 25.7% of Henderson’s steals came in the first inning. His 81 home runs to open a game are most in MLB history, 27 more than second-best Alfonso Soriano. According to MLB.com, Henderson had a career-high nine leadoff homers with the Yankees in 1986.

It’s no surprise 30.9% of Henderson’s steals came at the Oakland Coliseum, followed by 12.4% at Yankee Stadium. Henderson played 1,704 of his 3,081 games (55.3%) with the A’s over four stints, starting from 1979-84. It was a 1989 midseason trade from the Yankees that brought Henderson home for a World Series title over the Giants, Oakland’s first championship since their 1972-74 run. After being traded to the Blue Jays in 1993, Henderson signed back with Oakland after the season. He left in free agency after the 1995 season and returned for a final season with Oakland in 1998, winning his final stolen base title with 66 steals at age 39. In all, Henderson stole bases in 42 different ballparks, from Oakland to Candlestick and PacBell Park in San Francisco, to Monterrey, Mexico (1996 with Padres), to Aloha Stadium in Hawaii (1997 with Padres), to the Tokyo Dome (2000 with Mariners).

Each stolen base is unique. Let’s look at Henderson’s five most important steals as measured by his team’s Championship Win Probability Added, a baseball reference metric that shows how a play affects a team’s title chances. For context, the play that most improved a team’s title chances came in Game 7 in the 1960 World Series, when Hal Smith’s three-run home run in the eighth inning gave the Pirates a 9-7 lead over the Yankees. Smith’s homer increased the Pirates’ chances by 63.6%. Bill Mazeroski’s walk-off home run an inning later ranks sixth all time at 36.4%.

Five most important stolen bases (championship probability added)

October 10, 1993, Game 5 of ALCS, 1.85% cWPA: With the best-of-7 series tied 2-2, Henderson led off the bottom of the first with a double for the Blue Jays. After a Roberto Alomar walk, White Sox pitcher Jack McDowell attempted to pick off Henderson at second. Only Henderson had already broke for third. The throw went into center field and Henderson scored on the error with Alomar advancing to second. Toronto won the game 5-3 and went on to win the World Series over the Phillies.

October 15, 1989, Game 2 of World Series, 0.81% cWPA: In the first inning, Henderson set the tone for a 5-1 A’s victory with a leadoff walk and steal of second base. He scored on a Lansford double for a 1-0 lead. Henderson went 3-for-3 in the game, and Oakland went on to sweep the Giants in the earthquake-suspended series.

October 27, 1989, Game 3 of World Series, 0.80% cWPA: Twelve days after his Game 2 steal, the Bay Area was recovering from the October 17 Loma Prieta earthquake that struck minutes before the originally scheduled Game 3 at Candlestick Park. Henderson made his presence felt in the rescheduled game. After an inning-opening double, Henderson swiped third. He wouldn’t score in the inning.

October 10, 1992, Game 3 of ALCS, 0.78% cWPA: With the series tied 1-1 and Oakland trailing 5-2, Henderson opened the seventh inning with a leadoff walk against Toronto. He stole second, advanced to third on an error and scored on a Ruben Sierra sac fly. Oakland added one more run in the inning, but fell 7-5 and lost the series in six. Henderson would be traded to the Blue Jays the next season.

October 17, 1990, Game 2 of World Series, 0.76% cWPA: After being shutout in Game 1 against the Reds, Henderson opened Game 2 with a single. After stealing second base, Henderson went to third on a Lansford bunt and scored on a Canseco groundout to first. Oakland would lose 5-4 in 10 innings, and were swept. Oakland had gone 1-2 in their three consecutive World Series appearances, with Henderson playing in 1989 and 1990.

Five most important stolen bases (win probability added)

September 24, 1988, with Yankees, 25.4% WPA: Trailing 4-3 with no outs in the bottom of the ninth, Henderson drew a leadoff walk off Red Sox closer Lee Smith. Henderson stole second and advanced to third on a wild pitch, then scored on a Claudell Washington double. Two outs later, Washington scored the winning run.

April 24, 1988, with Yankees, 23.8% WPA: With the game tied 3-3 in the bottom of the eighth, Henderson led off with a single against the Blue Jays. After Willie Randolph walked, he and Henderson took off on a double steal, with Henderson scoring the go-ahead run and Randolph to third on a wild pitch. New York won 5-3.

August 1, 1999, with Mets, 19.6% WPA: After a leadoff walk in the top of the 10th, Henderson stole second and advanced to third on a throwing error. He scored on an Edgardo Alfonso sac fly for a 4-3 lead. The Cubs tied the game in the bottom of the inning, and New York won in the 13th inning.

August 26, 1997, with Angels, 19.0% WPA: Despite Tony Phillips and Eric Plunk involved, this steal doesn’t involve the A’s. In the bottom of the ninth of a tied game, Henderson took a one-out walk off Plunk. With Phillips batting, Henderson stole second and reached third on the catcher’s throw. After Plunk intentionally walked the bases loaded, Henderson scored the winning run on a Tim Salmon sac fly.

May 10, 1982, with A’s, 13.1% WPA: In a tie game, Henderson led off the bottom of the ninth with a walk and advanced to second on a Dwayne Murphy bunt. Henderson stole third with one out, but was left standed. Oakland won 7-6 in 10 innings.