Inside the dip in Steph Curry's 3-point shooting

The guard reached 44.9% in 2013, but is shooting less than 40% over the past three years.

The following charts and graphics might be offensive to certain readers. I assure you, however, that Stephen Curry is still the greatest 3-point shooter of all time and the Warriors are in prime position to make a championship run.

That being said, what’s up? Will we ever see 2015-16 Curry again?

Though the two time MVP has shown signs of life over the past week — 48.8% 3-point shooting over his last four games — Curry is mired in the worst long-term slump of his career. Though by Curry standards, that just makes him closer to human.

Aside from the opening games of his rookie season, Curry’s career 3-point percentage topped out at 44.898% after a November 2, 2013, game against the Kings. In the eight-plus years since, it has dropped 2%. He is below 40% over the last three-plus years, yet still 3 percentage points better than the NBA average.

A closer look shows a severe dip in 2021-22, the worst shooting season of his career other than his five-game, injury-marred 2019-20 campaign. Even the January return of Klay Thompson from a two-and-a-half year absence couldn’t boost Curry’s shooting.

Curry had a 20-game stretch from December 11-January 25 in which he shot 32.1% on 3s, the third worst 20-game stretch of his career. That coincided with Thompson’s return January 9th and Draymond Green’s departure with a back injury days later.

Other than 2019-20, this is the first time Curry has shot less than 40% from beyond the arc. The slump hasn’t affected his volume, however, as he is hoisting 12.6 3-pointers per game, the second-most of his career (12.7 last season).

It’s safe to say we’ll never see another 2015-16, when the Warriors won an NBA-record 73 games and Curry somehow made a higher percentage of 3s beyond 30 feet (46.7%) than overall (45.4%), according to stathead.com. Last season, Curry nearly matched those numbers, making his second-highest percentage beyond 30 (39.4%).

At the pace he’s firing this season, Curry will put his 3-point record out of reach no matter the percentages. His 4.8 made per-game average is 0.9 more than the next NBA player (Fred VanVleet, 3.9), and 1.5 more than the rest of the field. Curry attempts 12.6 3s per game. No other player averages 10 attempts.

Curry remains the only player in NBA history to average five 3-pointers per game, having done so three times. James Harden has come closest with 4.8 in 2018-19.

Alas, we yearn for a 2015-16 season when magic seemed to course through Oracle Arena — up until the NBA Finals at least. Curry has significant percentage drops in virtually every 3-point category when compared to 2015-16, when everything the two-time MVP seemed to toss up — no matter how far — went swish.

Even Curry’s overall field-goal shooting is the worst of his career (other than 2019-20). He is shooting 48.7% on 2-point shots, compared to his 51.8% career average.

And while the league 3-point percentage (34.9%) is its worst in a decade, the gap is closing on Curry’s percentage. Curry has shot 10 percentage points better than the league average twice, is +7.2 for his career, but only +3.0 this season.

While he struggles to find his old form shooting, Curry has stepped up his game in other areas. With Green out, Curry has his best eight-game assist stretch in four seasons (8.0 from January 18-31). His 6.3 season average is his most in a full season since 2016-17 (6.6 assists). Curry has also increased his averages from last season in steals (1.2 to 1.5) and blocks (0.1 to 0.4) while decreasing turnovers (3.4 to 3.2).