Could Draymond Green return fix Warriors' two biggest issues?
Part 1: An in-depth look at how Stephen Curry's 3-point shooting improves with All-Star forward on floor
The question popped into Warriors fans’ heads when backup Utah center Hassan Whiteside did his best Bill Russell impression. And it arises when Stephen Curry runs through an American Gladiators gauntlet in search of an open shot.
“When is Draymond Green returning?”
The answer is still speculative. The All-Star forward and 2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year is eager to return from a back injury but, with less than two months remaining in the regular season, hasn’t given a definitive time table. General Manager Bob Myers is hopeful Green and second-year center James Wiseman (right knee surgery) will return in time to gear up for the postseason.
What is certain are two areas in which the Warriors have struggled during Green’s absence: Curry 3-point shooting and rebounding against the West’s top big men. In the first of a two-part series, I examine how Green’s passing ability boosts the team and Curry’s shooting. In part two, which will publish Thursday, I focus on how Green’s rebounding and transition offense can help the undersized Warriors.
PART 1: 3-POINT SHOOTING
Curry’s 3-point percentage spikes by 2.1% this season in games played with Green, one of the game’s best passers at the forward position. Despite missing 23 games on the season (20 in his latest stint), Green has more than twice as many assists on Curry 3-pointers than any other Warriors teammate, according to basketball-reference.com. In the 20 games Green has missed since January 9th, Curry’s 3-point percentage is 35.6%, down 3.1% from the time of Green’s departure.
Curry’s struggles can be attributed to a lack of ball movement needed to get open shots in rhythm. Teammates assisted on 59.8% of Curry 3s before Green’s latest absence, and 50.7% of his 3s since. According to NBA.com data, Curry makes better than his season 3-point percentage of 37.9% when shooting on 0 dribbles (38.5%) or 1 dribble (40.0%), and below his season average on when shooting on 2 dribbles (31.8%) or 3-6 dribbles (35.5%). He shoots 39.2% on 7-plus dribbles.
To his credit, Curry has limited 3-point attempts and increased assist totals over the past two months. Curry is averaging 9.9 3-point attempts per game in February, down from 14.3 attempts in December. It’s the first month since February 2018 that Curry has averaged fewer than 10.0 3-point attempts per game (minimum five games). In January, Curry shot his lowest 3-point percentage (32.9%) for any month of his career (minimum five games). Meanwhile, his 7.3 assists were most since 8.0 in April 2017.
Nobody expects Green to end Curry’s near decade-long slide in 3-point percentage. During Golden State’s five-year run of Finals appearances (2014-15 to 2018-19), Curry led the NBA in 3-pointers made and ranked second behind Kyle Korver in 3-point percentage (minimum 1,000 attempts). Over those five seasons, Curry ranked third with a 27.4 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), a basketball-reference.com tool that measures per-minute production with 15.0 being the NBA average.
This season, while Curry maintains a commanding lead in 3-pointers made, he ranks 61st in 3-point percentage (minimum 100 attempts), 20 slots behind his brother Seth. Curry ranks 26th in PER this season at 21.6, though he ranks first in PER among the top-10 ranked players in 3-pointers made. Among that top-10 list, Curry ranks sixth in 3-point percentage at 37.9, his first full season shooting under 40%.
Since peeking at 44.9% in November 2013, Curry’s career 3-point percentage has dropped two percentage points over eight seasons. He has shot under 40% over the last three seasons combined, starting with an injury-ridden 2019-20 campaign in which he played five games. Those numbers have gotten worse with Green sidelined.
While Curry takes by far the highest volume of 3-pointers on the Warriors, Andrew Wiggins and Otto Porter Jr. are each shooting higher percentages. Perhaps Curry’s remarkable 16-of-27 3-point performance in the All-Star Game, which earned him MVP honors for the first time, will help break the slump.
Golden State is 20-1 this season when Curry shoots 40% from 3, with the lone loss coming at the Clippers last week. Golden State is 17-0 when shooting 40% from 3 as a team. By contrast, Golden State still holds a 5-5 record when opponents shoot 40% from 3-point range this season. Golden State is 3-0 when both teams shoot 40%.
Golden State has a 12-8 record since Green last played January 9th. The team has shot 40% from 3 five times during that stretch, winning all five games. Curry has eclipsed 40% seven times, with the team going 6-1. Curry shoots 40.5% in Warriors wins, and 30.7 in the team’s losses this season.