Tony Gwynn and a lost chance at baseball history

How the 1994 work stoppage cost the Padres' legend an opportunity to hit .400

Major League Baseball lost plenty during a 1994 work stoppage — a World Series, fan loyalty, TV ratings. A National Pastime became an American Afterthought, and today the same parties again lose games, trust and dollars to a financial tug-of-war.

For Padres outfielder Tony Gwynn, the stoppage was uniquely painful. The future Hall of Famer, then 34, missed an opportunity to become the first player to hit .400 in a season since Ted Williams batted .406 in 1941.

Gwynn was the greatest contact hitter of his era. In a decade defined by the long ball, the left-handed hitter from Los Angeles drove pitchers crazy by using the entire field to compile a .338 lifetime average. Ask Hall of Famer John Smoltz, whom Gwynn hit .462 against in 65 at-bats, according to www.stathead.com. Or Braves teammate and fellow Hall of Famer Greg Maddux, whom Gwynn batted .429 against in 91 at-bats.

Social media images courtesy of Tom Halfich

For his career, Gwynn hit a remarkable .331 against Hall of Fame pitchers, just .007 less than his career average. Ty Cobb, with the highest career average in major-league history at .366, hit .333 against Hall of Famers. Wade Boggs, the second-best hitter to Gwynn in their era, had a .327 lifetime average but only .301 against Hall of Famers. Gwynn never struck out 10 times against any pitcher, HOF or otherwise.

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Each season from 1991-96, Mr. Padre struck out fewer than 20 times in 475-plus plate appearances. In 2021, the fewest strikeouts for a player with 400-plus PAs was Pirates infielder Kevin Newman with 41. Gwynn’s lowest strikeout percentage came in 1995 at 2.6% (15 strikeouts in 577 PAs). His 14 strikeouts in 1999 are fewest for any player with 400-plus PAs since Dave Cash in 1976 (13).

All-time strikeout leader Nolan Ryan struck out Gwynn the most times (nine) of any pitcher, but it took 67 matchups. Ryan struck out roughly 25% of the batters he faced, but Gwynn only 13.4% of the time.

Among MLB players with 3,000 hits, Gwynn ranks third in at-bats-to-strikeout ratio at 21.4. He ranks first in AB/SO among all players since World War II, with Stan Musial a distant second at 15.7 and Wade Boggs third at 12.3. During the 1995 season, Gwynn went 39 consecutive games without a strikeout. In that span he had 63 hits, 13 doubles, four home runs and 10 walks.

Gwynn’s .338 career average ranks 22nd all time, trails only Ted Williams among players since World War II (minimum 3,000 PAs) and is 10 points better than any player whose career began after 1971. Gwynn’s average is 35 points better than all-time hit king Pete Rose (.303), who had nearly 5,000 more at-bats in his career.

Three most clutch hits (based on Championship Win Probability Added)

Game 5, 1984 NLCS, 14.0% cWPA): The most clutch hit of Gwynn’s career, according to www.stathead.com’s championship Win Probability Added, came in the 1984 NLCS between the Cubs and Padres. In the deciding Game 5, with the game tied 3-3 in the bottom of the seventh inning, Gwynn laced a two-run double to center field off Chicago’s Rick Sutcliffe, scoring Tim Flannery and the speedy Alan Wiggins. The hit increased the Padres’ chances of winning the World Series by 14.0%. Gwynn later scored on a Steve Garvey single for a 6-3 lead and the Padres advanced to the World Series. Gwynn hit .368 (7-for-19) with three doubles in the NLCS.

Game 1, 1998 World Series, 7.72% cWPA: Facing David Wells in the fifth inning, Gwynn broke a 2-2 tie with a home run that struck the upper-deck facade at old Yankee Stadium. It was the first postseason homer of Gwynn’s career. Greg Vaughn followed with a solo home run for a 5-2 lead, but the Yankees rallied to win Game 1.

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Game 3, 1998 World Series, 5.27% cWPA: Gwynn broke a scoreless tie the sixth inning, scoring Sterling Hitchcock and Quilvio Veras on a single to right field. Gwynn would later score on a Ken Caminiti sac fly for a 3-0 Padres lead. The Yankees scored five runs in the next three innings to win Game 3, 5-4, and went on to sweep the World Series. Gwynn hit a remarkable .500 (8-for-16) in the four games.

1994 season

Gwynn entered 1994 as the hottest hitter in baseball, having batted .400 after the All-Star break in 1993, including .448 in August. He was hitting .443 in late April of 1994 before dipping to .376 in June. Again, Gwynn caught fire in the second half, hitting .423 after the break and .475 in August before a player strike ended the season.

Gwynn had multiple hits in seven of 10 August games before the strike, including going 3-for-5 in the August 11 finale at Houston. Gwynn’s .394 average is highest since 1941. Nobody else has hit .380 since 1980.

Though Gwynn never got the chance to hit .400 over a complete 1994 season, his torrid 1993 finish and hot 1995 start make him one of two players to hit .400 over a 162-game stretch since 1941. Gwynn’s .402 average from July 1993 to May 1995 are .001 better than Wade Boggs’ .401 average over 162 games in 1985-86.