Rookies soaring as Warriors enter playoff push
Can Draymond Green and James Wiseman fix rebounding issues?
Watching the Golden State Warriors over the past month, it has been tough to believe that this team opened the season 18-2. Golden State went 2-9 from February 9th to March 7th, allowing at least 120 points in four consecutive losses to close that stretch. Opposing backup centers dominated the boards, Stephen Curry can’t find his magical stroke and Golden State was falling in the West standings.
Three consecutive wins later, most recently over contending Denver and Milwaukee, Warriors fans have reason to believe. Draymond Green’s expected return Monday from a back injury, coupled with the anticipated return of center James Wiseman, should help fix Golden State’s rebounding issues of the past few months.
The Warriors’ most glaring weakness since Green last played January 5th (the forward made a ceremonial start for Klay Thompson’s return game January 9th) has come on defense. Golden State allowed 101.4 points per game through January 5th, while scoring 110.5 points in the season’s first 37 games. In 31 games since, Golden State has allowed 109.0 points, a 7.6-point increase, scoring 112.4. Golden State is 17-14 since January 5th. Over Golden State’s last 20 games (11-9), the team has allowed 112.8 points. And during its 2-9 stretch, Golden State was outscored 116.9-112.4.
The initial feel-good story upon Green’s absence was the emergence of Kevon Looney, the Warriors’ best offensive rebounder of the Steve Kerr era. As the All-Star break neared, with Looney often the lone interior presence, Golden State’s deficiencies on the boards became apparent. In Saturday’s win over Milwaukee, Golden State outrebounded the Bucks 55-39, its largest advantage since January. The Warriors had eight players with five-plus rebounds, and rookie forward Jonathan Kuminga (11 rebounds) had his second double-digit game of the season and first in two months.
An overlay of the Warriors’ point and rebound differential shows a direct correlation. Golden State’s rebounding was at its worst during the 2-9 stretch starting in February. Looking at the Warriors’ five-game rolling average (each point on the chart representing an average of the previous five games), Golden State had a points and rebounds deficit of more than eight after a February 16 loss to Denver.
Curry attempted only seven field goals in Saturday’s win, his fewest attempted shots since 2015 when playing 20 minutes. The game represents a change in philosophy as the point guard plays through one of his worst shooting seasons. Curry averaged 21.3 shot attempts and 4.7 assists in December, when he shot 37.4% on 3-pointers. He shot 32.9% from 3 in January, nearly 10 points below his career average of 42.8%. Since February, Curry has averaged 17.5 field-goal attempts and 6.6 assists.
Perhaps the two biggest reasons for Warriors fans’ excitement is improved play from Kuminga and fellow rookie Moses Moody. Each first-round pick has increased his scoring over the season, with Kuminga averaging 15.4 and Moody 10.4 in March.
Moody is shooting a team-best 43.6% from 3-point range since February, and 45.8% in seven March games. The shooting guard went 11-for-11 from the field and 5-for-5 from 3 in his first three games of March. Kuminga has scored double-digit points in 15 of 17 games and has averaged more than 25 minutes since February, seemingly making the forward a lock for the postseason rotation.
The hottest Warrior of all might be Jordan Poole, the third-year player who is shooting better than 50% from 3 this month. The guard has scored more than 20 points in six consecutive games, coming off the bench in four. He scored 30 points Saturday, combining with Klay Thompson (38 points) for 68 points in the win.
This is nothing new for Poole, who has improved over each of his three NBA seasons. Despite shooting under 30% from the field in the first three months of his career, Poole is a 45.3% career shooter. He shot over 30% in every month since.